Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HLT)

Q1 2025 Financial Analysis | April 29, 2025

Executive Summary

Hilton Worldwide Holdings reported solid first quarter 2025 results, despite weaker macroeconomic conditions. The company demonstrated strong bottom-line performance, with a 7.2% net unit growth year-over-year and robust development pipeline. System-wide comparable RevPAR increased 2.5% on a currency neutral basis compared to the same period in 2024, driven by increases in both occupancy and Average Daily Rate (ADR).

Q1 2025 Highlights

Net income was $300 million, up from $268 million in Q1 2024
Adjusted EBITDA was $795 million, up from $750 million in Q1 2024
System-wide comparable RevPAR increased 2.5% on a currency neutral basis
Added 20,100 rooms to the system with 14,000 net additional rooms
Development pipeline grew to 503,400 rooms, representing 7% growth from March 31, 2024
Returned $927 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends

Financial Performance

Net Income
$300M
↑11.9% YoY
Diluted EPS
$1.23
↑18.3% YoY
Adjusted EPS
$1.72
↑12.4% YoY
Adjusted EBITDA
$795M
↑6.0% YoY
RevPAR Growth
2.5%
Currency Neutral
Net Unit Growth
7.2%
Year-over-Year

For the three months ended March 31, 2025, Hilton's system-wide comparable RevPAR increased 2.5% compared to the same period in 2024, driven by increases in both occupancy and ADR. Management and franchise fee revenues increased 5.1% compared to the same period in 2024.

Diluted EPS was $1.23 for Q1 2025, up from $1.04 in Q1 2024, representing an 18.3% increase. Diluted EPS, adjusted for special items, was $1.72 compared to $1.53 in the same period last year, a 12.4% increase.

Net income for Q1 2025 was $300 million, up from $268 million in Q1 2024, representing an 11.9% increase. Adjusted EBITDA was $795 million for Q1 2025, compared to $750 million for Q1 2024, a 6.0% increase, reflecting strong underlying business performance despite somewhat weaker macroeconomic conditions.

The company's adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 73.7% in Q1 2025 from 70.4% in Q1 2024, demonstrating Hilton's ability to maintain operational efficiency and strong pricing power in its franchise and management business segments.

Development & Growth

Hilton continued to demonstrate strong development activity in Q1 2025, opening 186 hotels totaling 20,100 rooms. This resulted in 14,000 net room additions for the quarter, contributing to a net unit growth of 7.2% from March 31, 2024.

The company approved 32,600 new rooms for development during the first quarter, bringing its development pipeline to 503,400 rooms as of March 31, 2025, representing 7% growth from March 31, 2024. This robust pipeline spans 3,600 hotels throughout 123 countries and territories, including 27 countries and territories where Hilton had no existing hotels.

Of the rooms in the development pipeline, nearly half were under construction and more than half were located outside of the U.S., highlighting Hilton's balanced approach to global expansion.

During the quarter, Hilton continued to grow its portfolio of lifestyle properties, adding the Tempo by Hilton brand in the U.K. (marking the brand's first hotel outside of the U.S.), the first Tapestry Collection by Hilton and Curio Collection by Hilton hotels in Athens, Greece, and Canopy by Hilton in Utah (representing the brand's first ski destination).

In April 2025, Hilton continued expanding its luxury brands, opening the Waldorf Astoria Osaka and the Waldorf Astoria Costa Rica Punta Cacique, further strengthening its position in the high-end hospitality market.

Waldorf Astoria
Conrad
LXR
NoMad
Signia
Canopy
Hilton Hotels
Curio Collection
DoubleTree
Tapestry Collection
Embassy Suites
Tempo
Motto
Hilton Garden Inn
Hampton
Tru
Spark
Homewood Suites
Home2 Suites

Operating Statistics

Region Occupancy vs. 2024 ADR vs. 2024 RevPAR vs. 2024
System-wide 66.8% +0.4 pts $155.07 +1.8% $103.59 +2.5%
U.S. 67.7% +0.2 pts $164.58 +1.7% $111.39 +2.1%
Americas (excl. U.S.) 64.4% +0.4 pts $153.63 +7.1% $98.92 +7.7%
Europe 64.5% +0.6 pts $138.58 +1.6% $89.34 +2.6%
Middle East & Africa 70.8% +2.1 pts $202.79 +5.3% $143.55 +8.5%
Asia Pacific 64.1% +0.8 pts $107.09 -1.2% $68.69 0.0%

Hilton's system-wide comparable RevPAR increased 2.5% on a currency neutral basis for Q1 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. This growth was driven by a 0.4 percentage point increase in occupancy to 66.8% and a 1.8% increase in ADR to $155.07.

The Middle East & Africa region was the strongest performer, with RevPAR growth of 8.5%, driven by a 2.1 percentage point increase in occupancy to 70.8% and a 5.3% increase in ADR. This region continued to benefit from strong leisure and business travel demand.

The Americas (excluding U.S.) region also performed well, with RevPAR growth of 7.7%, primarily driven by a substantial 7.1% increase in ADR, reflecting strong pricing power in these markets.

The U.S., Hilton's largest market, saw RevPAR growth of 2.1%, with a modest 0.2 percentage point increase in occupancy and a 1.7% increase in ADR, demonstrating resilience despite slowing economic conditions.

The Asia Pacific region saw flat RevPAR performance, as a 0.8 percentage point increase in occupancy was offset by a 1.2% decrease in ADR, reflecting ongoing recovery challenges in certain markets.

Among the brands, Spark by Hilton showed the strongest RevPAR growth at 26.1%, followed by Waldorf Astoria at 10.7% and Motto by Hilton at 9.4%, highlighting the success of Hilton's newest brand and continued strength in the luxury segment.

Capital Allocation & Balance Sheet

Share Repurchases
$890M
3.7M Shares
Dividends Paid
$37M
$0.15/Share
Total Capital Return
$927M
Q1 2025
Total Debt
$11.2B
4.77% Rate
Cash & Equivalents
$807M
As of Mar 31
Net Debt to Adj. EBITDA
3.0x
TTM Basis

During Q1 2025, Hilton continued its strong capital return program, repurchasing 3.7 million shares of common stock at an average price of $242.92 per share, for a total of $890 million. Including dividends of $37 million, the company returned a total of $927 million to shareholders during the quarter.

Year to date through April, including dividends, Hilton's total capital return was $1,157 million. For the full year 2025, the company projects capital return of approximately $3.3 billion.

As of March 31, 2025, Hilton had $11.2 billion of debt outstanding, excluding deferred financing costs and discount, with a weighted average interest rate of 4.77%. Excluding finance lease liabilities, the company had no scheduled maturities until April 2027, other than $500 million of Senior Notes due May 2025.

In April 2025, Hilton issued notice to borrow $500 million under its Revolving Credit Facility and plans to use the proceeds, together with available cash, to repay the $500 million Senior Notes due May 2025.

Total cash and cash equivalents were $807 million as of March 31, 2025, including $76 million of restricted cash and cash equivalents.

The company's net debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio was 3.0x on a trailing twelve-month basis, indicating a strong balance sheet and financial flexibility to support continued growth and shareholder returns.

Outlook & Guidance

Full-Year 2025 Guidance

System-wide RevPAR growth: 0-2.0% (comparable and currency neutral)
Net income: $1,707-1,749M
Adjusted EBITDA: $3,650-3,710M
Diluted EPS: $7.04-7.22
Adjusted Diluted EPS: $7.76-7.94
Capital return: ~$3.3B
Net unit growth: 6.0-7.0%

Q2 2025 Guidance

System-wide RevPAR growth: ~0% (comparable and currency neutral)
Net income: $455-469M
Adjusted EBITDA: $940-960M
Diluted EPS: $1.88-1.94
Adjusted Diluted EPS: $1.97-2.02

Hilton's guidance for 2025 reflects a cautious outlook amid somewhat weaker macroeconomic conditions. For the full year, the company projects system-wide comparable RevPAR growth of 0% to 2.0% on a currency neutral basis compared to 2024, indicating expectations for a challenging demand environment.

Despite the tempered RevPAR outlook, Hilton expects to deliver solid financial results, with full-year net income projected between $1,707 million and $1,749 million and Adjusted EBITDA between $3,650 million and $3,710 million.

The second quarter guidance is particularly conservative, with system-wide comparable RevPAR projected to be roughly flat compared to Q2 2024. However, the company still expects to deliver Q2 Adjusted EBITDA between $940 million and $960 million.

Hilton's projected net unit growth of 6.0% to 7.0% for 2025 highlights the company's continued focus on expanding its footprint globally. This growth, combined with the company's fee-based business model, is expected to drive meaningful earnings growth even in a more challenging RevPAR environment.

The company's projected capital return of approximately $3.3 billion for the full year 2025 underscores management's commitment to returning substantial value to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, supported by strong free cash flow generation.

Risks & Opportunities

Opportunities

+
Strong development pipeline supporting continued net unit growth
+
Expansion of lifestyle and luxury brands in new markets
+
Digital innovations enhancing guest experience and loyalty
+
Growing Hilton Honors membership driving direct bookings
+
International expansion opportunities in underpenetrated markets

Risks

!
Weakening macroeconomic conditions impacting travel demand
!
Labor shortages and rising labor costs
!
Intensifying competition in key markets
!
Geopolitical instability in certain regions
!
Supply chain disruptions affecting development timelines

Conclusion

Strengths

  • Strong net unit growth of 7.2% year-over-year
  • Robust development pipeline of 503,400 rooms
  • Significant adjusted EBITDA margin expansion to 73.7%
  • Substantial capital return to shareholders
  • Balanced global expansion strategy

Focus Areas

  • Managing through weaker macroeconomic conditions
  • Navigating a challenging RevPAR environment in Q2 and beyond
  • Balancing expansion with maintaining quality standards
  • Addressing labor challenges across markets
  • Continuing to innovate in guest experience

Summary Assessment

Hilton delivered a solid Q1 2025 performance despite facing somewhat weaker macroeconomic conditions. The company's strong bottom-line results, highlighted by an 11.9% increase in net income and a 6.0% increase in Adjusted EBITDA, demonstrate the resilience of its asset-light, fee-based business model.

The company's continued development momentum, with 14,000 net room additions contributing to a 7.2% net unit growth rate, provides a solid foundation for future earnings growth even in a more challenging RevPAR environment. The robust development pipeline of 503,400 rooms (7% growth year-over-year) further supports this trajectory.

Hilton's substantial capital return program, with $927 million returned to shareholders in Q1 alone and a projected $3.3 billion for the full year, underscores management's commitment to creating shareholder value. The company's strong balance sheet, with a net debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3.0x, provides financial flexibility to support both growth initiatives and capital returns.

While the outlook for 2025 reflects cautious expectations for RevPAR growth amid economic headwinds, Hilton remains well-positioned to continue creating value for its stakeholders through its industry-leading brands, powerful commercial engines, and disciplined approach to capital allocation.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence or consult a licensed financial advisor. The information presented is based on Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s Q1 2025 earnings release and may not reflect subsequent developments.

Source: Hilton Q1 2025 Earnings Release

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