Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC)

Q1 2025 Financial Analysis | April 24, 2025

Executive Summary

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) reported its first-quarter 2025 financial results, showing flat year-over-year revenue at $12.7 billion amid ongoing challenges in the semiconductor market. The company reported a GAAP loss per share of $(0.19), while non-GAAP EPS was $0.13. Intel's new CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, acknowledged that while Q1 was "a step in the right direction," he emphasized there are "no quick fixes" as the company works to regain market share and return to sustainable growth. In response to these challenges, Intel has announced a comprehensive initiative aimed at improving execution and operational efficiency, including plans to reduce operating expenses to $17 billion in 2025 and $16 billion in 2026. The company also lowered its gross capital expenditures target for 2025 to $18 billion from the previously announced $20 billion.

Q1 2025 Highlights

Revenue was $12.7 billion, flat year-over-year
GAAP EPS of $(0.19), down 111% from $(0.09) in Q1 2024
Non-GAAP EPS of $0.13, down 28% from $0.18 in Q1 2024
GAAP gross margin of 36.9%, down 4.1 percentage points year-over-year
Expecting Q2 2025 revenue of $11.2-$12.4 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $0.00

Financial Performance

Revenue
$12.7B
Flat YoY
GAAP Gross Margin
36.9%
↓4.1 pts YoY
Non-GAAP Gross Margin
39.2%
↓5.9 pts YoY
GAAP Operating Loss
$(301)M
↑$768M YoY
Non-GAAP Operating Income
$690M
↓4.6% YoY
GAAP EPS
$(0.19)
↓111% YoY

Intel's first-quarter 2025 revenue remained flat year-over-year at $12.7 billion, reflecting ongoing market challenges and competitive pressures. While the company maintained its top-line performance, profitability metrics showed significant decline. GAAP gross margin decreased by 410 basis points to 36.9%, while non-GAAP gross margin fell by 590 basis points to 39.2%, indicating increased cost pressures and potentially unfavorable product mix.

The company reported a GAAP operating loss of $301 million, which represents an improvement from the $1.07 billion loss in Q1 2024. This improvement was primarily driven by a 19% reduction in GAAP R&D and MG&A expenses to $4.8 billion, reflecting the company's ongoing focus on cost optimization. Non-GAAP operating income was $690 million, representing a slight decline of 4.6% from the prior year, with non-GAAP operating margin contracting slightly by 0.3 percentage points to 5.4%.

Intel generated $813 million in cash from operations during the quarter, marking a substantial improvement from the negative $1.22 billion in Q1 2024. However, the company's adjusted free cash flow remained negative at $(3.68) billion, although this represents an improvement from $(6.18) billion in the prior year.

Segment Performance

Segment Revenue ($B) YoY Growth Operating Income ($B) YoY Change
Client Computing Group (CCG) $7.63 -8% $2.36 -16%
Data Center and AI (DCAI) $4.13 8% $0.58 38%
Intel Foundry $4.67 7% $(2.32) 5% improvement
All Other $0.94 47% $0.10 $0.27B improvement

Intel's segment performance in Q1 2025 reveals a mixed picture across its business units. The Client Computing Group (CCG), traditionally Intel's largest revenue driver, experienced an 8% year-over-year decline to $7.63 billion. This decrease likely reflects ongoing challenges in the PC market and competitive pressures. CCG's operating income fell by 16% to $2.36 billion, indicating margin compression despite cost-cutting efforts.

In contrast, the Data Center and AI (DCAI) segment showed strength with 8% year-over-year revenue growth to $4.13 billion, potentially reflecting improving demand for data center products and early signs of success in Intel's AI-focused offerings. DCAI's operating income increased by 38% to $575 million, demonstrating improved operational efficiency and potentially better pricing in this segment.

Intel Foundry, a key component of the company's strategic transformation, saw 7% revenue growth to $4.67 billion. However, the segment continues to operate at a substantial loss, with an operating loss of $2.32 billion, though this represents a 5% improvement from the prior year.

Business Highlights

Product Updates

New Product Launches

  • Announced new Intel® Core™ Ultra 200V series mobile processors with Intel vPro®
  • Introduced Intel® Core™ Ultra 200HX and H series mobile processors
  • Launched Intel® Core™ Ultra 200U series mobile processors
  • Expanded Intel® Core™ Ultra 200S series desktop processor portfolio
  • Launched new Intel® Xeon® 6 processors with Performance-cores for data center

Strategic Developments

Key Initiatives

  • Intel 18A expected to ramp in H2 2025 to support first Panther Lake SKU by year-end
  • Additional Panther Lake SKUs planned for H1 2026
  • Announced agreement to sell 51% of Altera® business to Silver Lake
  • Completed second and final close of NAND business sale to SK hynix
  • Xeon 6 with P-cores demonstrated 1.9x boost in AI performance over previous generation

Intel made several significant product announcements during the first quarter of 2025, reinforcing its commitment to innovation across its portfolio. At CES, the company unveiled multiple new processors in its Intel® Core™ Ultra series, addressing various segments of the computing market. In the data center space, Intel launched new Intel® Xeon® 6 processors with Performance-cores, targeting both traditional data center applications and network/edge use cases.

On the manufacturing technology front, Intel continues to advance its process roadmap, with Intel 18A expected to begin ramping in the second half of 2025. This timing aligns with the planned launch of Intel's first Panther Lake processor by the end of 2025, with additional SKUs coming in the first half of 2026.

Intel also made progress in optimizing its business portfolio during the quarter. The company announced an agreement to sell 51% of its Altera business to Silver Lake, while retaining a 49% stake. Additionally, Intel completed the second and final close of its NAND memory business sale to SK hynix, further streamlining its operations.

Efficiency and Execution Initiatives

2025 Operating Expenses Target
$17.0B
↓$0.5B from previous target
2026 Operating Expenses Target
$16.0B
↓$1.0B from 2025 target
2025 Gross CapEx Target
$18.0B
↓$2.0B from previous target
2025 Net CapEx Target
$8-11B
Unchanged

A central focus of Intel's Q1 2025 earnings announcement was its comprehensive initiative to drive improved execution and operational efficiency across the business. The company outlined several key components of this plan, which aims to streamline the organization while maintaining investment in core products and technologies.

Intel is reducing its non-GAAP operating expense target to approximately $17 billion for 2025, down from its previously stated goal of $17.5 billion. Looking ahead to 2026, the company is targeting further reductions to $16 billion. These operating expenses include both research and development (R&D) and marketing, general and administrative (MG&A) costs.

On the capital expenditure front, Intel has lowered its gross capital expenditures target to $18 billion for 2025, a $2 billion reduction from its previous target of $20 billion. Despite this reduction, the company still expects net capital expenditures (after accounting for government incentives and partner contributions) to be approximately $8-11 billion.

Outlook & Guidance

Q2 2025 Guidance

Revenue: $11.2-$12.4 billion
GAAP Gross Margin: 34.3%
Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 36.5%
GAAP EPS: $(0.32)
Non-GAAP EPS: $0.00

Management Commentary

"The first quarter was a step in the right direction, but there are no quick fixes as we work to get back on a path to gaining market share and driving sustainable growth," said Lip-Bu Tan, Intel CEO.

"The current macro environment is creating elevated uncertainty across the industry, which is reflected in our outlook. We are taking a disciplined and prudent approach," said David Zinsner, Intel CFO.

Intel's guidance for Q2 2025 suggests continued challenges in the near term, with expected revenue of $11.2-$12.4 billion. At the midpoint, this represents a sequential decline of approximately 7% from Q1 and potentially a year-over-year decline compared to Q2 2024. The company's gross margin outlook is also concerning, with GAAP gross margin expected to decline to 34.3% and non-GAAP gross margin to 36.5%.

Perhaps most notably, Intel is guiding for a GAAP loss per share of $(0.32) in Q2, with non-GAAP EPS at the breakeven level of $0.00. This significant sequential deterioration in profitability highlights the challenges Intel faces in its transformation journey and suggests that Q1's results may have been aided by temporary factors that will not persist into Q2.

Risks & Opportunities

Risks

!
Continued market share pressure in core CPU markets
!
Declining gross margins impacting profitability
!
Execution challenges in advanced manufacturing

Opportunities

+
Growing demand for AI-optimized compute solutions
+
Intel 18A process potentially regaining leadership
+
Foundry business expansion through government incentives

Conclusion

Strengths

  • Data Center and AI segment showing growth (+8% YoY)
  • Improved operating cash flow generation ($0.8B, +$2.0B YoY)
  • Progress on portfolio optimization (Altera, NAND divestiture)
  • New product launches across client and data center portfolio

Focus Areas

  • Stabilizing and improving gross margins
  • Reversing Client Computing Group revenue decline
  • Accelerating foundry business path to profitability
  • Executing on process technology roadmap (Intel 18A)

Summary

Intel's Q1 2025 results reflect a company in transition, with flat overall revenue masking significant variations across business segments. The Client Computing Group's continued decline is concerning, though offset somewhat by growth in Data Center and AI. Profitability remains under pressure, with gross margin contraction and a wider GAAP loss per share compared to the prior year.

The company's new CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, has quickly implemented a comprehensive initiative focused on improving execution and operational efficiency. These actions demonstrate a recognition of the challenges Intel faces and a determination to address them systematically.

Looking ahead, Intel's guidance suggests continued near-term pressure, with Q2 expected to show sequential revenue decline and breakeven non-GAAP earnings. Key milestones to watch include the ramp of Intel 18A in the second half of 2025, the launch of Panther Lake processors, and progress in expanding the foundry business.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence or consult a licensed financial advisor. The information presented is based on Intel's Q1 2025 earnings release and may not reflect subsequent developments.

Source: Intel Q1 2025 Earnings Release

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