How Michael Burry's Picks are Playing Out In 2025 ?
Michael Burry's Portfolio
Michael Burry's Q1 2025 portfolio reveals a dramatic shift to an extremely bearish stance, with 6 of 7 positions being PUT options. Most notably, he has initiated a massive short position against NVIDIA, which now represents nearly half of his portfolio value. This marks a significant departure from his Q4 2024 portfolio and signals a strong conviction that markets—particularly in technology—are severely overvalued.
Key Change: Burry has concentrated his positions from 13 to just 7 holdings, with his overall portfolio value increasing from $77.4 million to $199.2 million, suggesting a significant increase in conviction and risk exposure.
Holdings Breakdown
Eliminated Positions
In a dramatic portfolio restructuring, Burry has completely eliminated several positions from the previous quarter:
- Healthcare Sector: Completely exited Molina Healthcare (MOH), HCA Healthcare (HCA), and Oscar Health (OSCR)
- Industrial/Research: Eliminated Bruker Corp (BRKR) position
- Consumer Discretionary: Exited V.F. Corp (VFC) and Canada Goose (GOOS)
- Financial Services: Closed position in American Coastal Insurance (ACIC)
- Other: Eliminated Magnera Corp (MGNX) position
This streamlined approach suggests a laser focus on his bearish thesis, particularly in technology and Chinese equities.
Strategic Analysis
Burry's enormous PUT position in NVIDIA represents nearly half his portfolio and signals an unmistakable conviction that the AI-driven tech rally is unsustainable. This echoes his previous successful calls against the housing market and dot-com bubble, suggesting he believes current tech valuations have reached dangerous territory.
By converting all his Chinese tech positions (Alibaba, Baidu, JD.com, PDD Holdings) from long to PUT positions, Burry is expressing a clear negative outlook on the entire Chinese tech sector. The addition of Trip.com extends this bearish thesis to Chinese travel services as well.
In a portfolio dominated by bearish bets, Estee Lauder stands out as the only long position. By doubling his stake, Burry appears to view luxury beauty as a relative safe haven, potentially because of its strong brand value, pricing power, and relatively stable demand even in economic downturns.
The elimination of all healthcare positions, consumer discretionary names, and specialty stocks marks a radical shift from the diversified approach seen in Q4 2024. This concentration suggests Burry sees a significant market correction as the dominant investment theme, outweighing sector-specific opportunities.
Conclusion
Michael Burry's Q1 2025 portfolio represents one of his most concentrated and bearish stances in recent history. With 6 of 7 positions being PUT options, and nearly half the portfolio betting against a single company (NVIDIA), Burry is clearly signaling his belief that markets—particularly in technology—are significantly overvalued.
This dramatic restructuring aligns with Burry's historical approach of making high-conviction contrarian bets when he identifies potential market bubbles. His laser focus on shorting both U.S. tech (via NVIDIA) and the entire Chinese tech ecosystem suggests he sees fundamental problems in both markets' valuations.
The increase in overall portfolio value from $77.4 million to $199.2 million indicates Burry is putting substantial capital behind his bearish thesis. Investors following Burry's movements should note the extreme concentration and directional nature of these bets—traits that have characterized his most famous market calls in the past.
Only time will tell if Burry's dramatic bearish pivot will prove as prescient as his previous contrarian positions, but the scale and focus of his current portfolio certainly demand attention from market observers.
